Recently, many member enterprises of the association have reflected that the price of timber has increased greatly, which has brought anxiety to the market and increased the production and operation costs of enterprises. To this end, the Secretariat of the Association conducted a survey and analysis. The main reasons for the price fluctuation in the current timber market are as follows:
One is the cause of the epidemic. Overseas, such as the United States, Canada and some European countries, the demand for building materials has increased. After the domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, the economy has continued to recover. The international community is optimistic about China's market. It is not ruled out that some foreign timber enterprises have speculative psychology and are reluctant to sell and deliberately raise the shipping price.
Second, the impact of land and sea freight. Since 2020, the epidemic has had a great impact on international trade. Port import and export inspection and quarantine are more stringent. No matter shipping, rail transportation and air transportation are all difficult to obtain. The increase of land and sea freight has promoted the rise of wood prices.
Third, the impact of supply and demand. In 2020, China's timber import volume will be 108.02 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of about 5%. Among them, 82.34 million cubic meters of coniferous wood decreased by about 2% year on year. Russia, New Zealand and Canada, which are the main sources of timber imports, have decreased significantly. Only Germany, Czech Republic and the United States have increased. Therefore, the price rise is mainly due to the recent decrease in the import of timber, the decline in timber inventory at the main ports, resulting in the temporary imbalance of timber supply and demand.
Fourth, it is affected by currency inflation. last year 6. In July, 1 US dollar was converted to 7.1 yuan RMB, and now it is 1 US dollar to 6.45 yuan RMB. The appreciation of RMB has nearly 10%, which has a certain impact on some export-oriented enterprises.
The association suggested that: with the warm weather and the mass vaccination of vaccines, the epidemic situation of Xinguan will be gradually controlled, and the timber production in major timber producing countries will gradually resume. Meanwhile, the main targets for China's economic and social development this year have been determined, GDP is determined to be more than 6% rather than 8% expected by foreign media. The overall economy is still based on stable operation, and wood demand is expected to grow steadily and slightly. In addition, in view of the fact that the current timber price fluctuation is mainly coniferous timber (at present, the price of hardwood remains stable), the global softwood resources are abundant, and there are many coniferous wood import countries in China. Therefore, it is suggested that member enterprises should make rational judgment and not blindly stock up, so as to avoid the phenomenon of serious losses of enterprises due to the sharp rise and fall of wood market prices in the past few years.
（ http://www.cnwood.cn/news/show-20539.html Source: CNKI)